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New Delhi, April 8: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised its economic growth forecast for the country, increasing the real GDP growth estimate for the fiscal year 2026 from 7.4% to 7.6%. This announcement was made on Wednesday amid concerns regarding geopolitical tensions that pose risks to the economy.
According to the RBI, this growth is expected to be driven by a robust service sector, expansion in manufacturing, and strong domestic demand, indicating the resilience of the economy.
For the fiscal year 2027, the RBI has projected a GDP growth rate of 6.9%, suggesting a potential slowdown due to rising external risks and cost pressures. This information was shared by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra following a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The growth estimate for the first quarter of FY 2027 has been slightly lowered from 6.9% to 6.8%, while the second quarter forecast has been adjusted down from 7% to 6.7%. This revision is attributed to the increasing global pressures resulting from the conflict in Iran.
Governor Malhotra stated, “The sharp rise in energy prices has heightened inflation risks, which could negatively impact global growth.”
In the December quarter of FY 2026, the GDP growth was recorded at 7.8%, a decrease from the previous quarter’s 8.4%.
The RBI anticipates that private sector investment will continue to grow, as the capacity utilization levels in industries remain high. Additionally, food inflation is expected to remain under control in the near future.
For FY 2027, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected at 4.6%, with estimates of 4% in the first quarter, 4.4% in the second, 5.2% in the third, and 4.7% in the fourth quarter.
The RBI Governor also assured that sufficient liquidity will be maintained in the banking system to meet the economy’s needs.
As of April 3, India’s foreign exchange reserves have reached $697.1 billion.
Malhotra noted that there has been an improvement in net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) compared to last year, with India emerging as an attractive destination for greenfield investments.
The RBI remains optimistic that improvements in private investment will continue, supporting economic growth.
Bhupendra Singh Chundawat is a seasoned technology journalist with over 22 years of experience in the media industry. He specializes in covering the global technology landscape, with a deep focus on manufacturing trends and the geopolitical impact on tech companies. Currently serving as the Editor at Udaipur Kiran, his insights are shaped by decades of hands-on reporting and editorial leadership in the fast-evolving world of technology.
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