T20 World Cup | Boycott India, forget Super 8s: Why rain is Pakistan’s biggest foe in Colombo


Pakistan are set to boycott their group-stage match against India in the T20 World Cup 2026, but the move could prove detrimental to their own campaign. Pakistan, who are scheduled to play all their matches in Sri Lanka, might also have to contend with unpredictable weather during the tournament.

The Saim Ayub-led side is set to play four group-stage matches in Sri Lanka, one of which they are already boycotting. Of the remaining three matches, two are expected to face possible rain interruptions, which could seriously hurt their chances of qualifying for the next round.

Weather in Colombo has historically been unpredictable and, if even one of those two matches is washed out, Pakistan could fall behind not only in terms of points, but also Net Run Rate as well.

T20 World Cup: Pakistan are playing all their matches in Sri Lanka. (Photo: Reuters)

But how severe are the chances of rain during Pakistan’s matches?

As per AccuWeather, Pakistan’s opening game against the Netherlands could see nearly a 64 per cent chance of rainfall, largely during the second half of the match. This could result in no play in the latter stages, potentially leading to a washout.

Rain chances on the day of Pakistan vs Netherlands

The two matches that have zero per cent chance of rainfall are the fixtures against USA and India on February 10 and 15 respectively. Pakistan lost to USA on the tricky Dallas in the previous edition of the tournament, which played a major role in their early exit.

The Pakistan government has already announced its decision to boycott the February 15 game against India. However, no official written communication has yet been submitted to the International Cricket Council.

Pakistan’s final group-stage match against Namibia has a 25 per cent chance of rain, meaning the game is expected to go ahead with minimal disruption.

Colombo weather during Pakistan’s matches:

  • February 7 vs Netherlands: Partial rain chances (64 per cent)
  • February 10 vs USA: No rain chances
  • February 15 vs India: Boycott
  • February 18 vs Namibia: Low rain chances (25 per cent)

Pakistan’s biggest concern will be managing their Net Run Rate in the remaining matches, given their decision to boycott India. The unpredictability of rain could make that task significantly harder.

Several matches were marred in Sri Lanka during the recently concluded Women’s ODI World Cup. (Photo: Reuters)

For Pakistan, playing the India match could have allowed them to stay relevant in terms of the Net Run Rate, irrespective of the result. On unpredictable pitches, Pakistan remain a dangerous side capable of troubling any opponent.

But without the India fixture, Pakistan can forget about qualifying for the Super 8 in the tournament.

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Published By:

Kingshuk Kusari

Published On:

Feb 4, 2026

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