New Delhi: Pakistan’s claim of a 3.7 percent economic growth rate for the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26 does not reflect actual increases in production or exports. According to a report, this figure is more an accounting illusion than a true indicator of economic health.
The think tank Economic Policy and Business Development (EPBD) highlighted that the growth rate approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) results from “methodological tricks, deflator manipulation, and import-based assembly activities,” rather than genuine improvements in productive capacity.
EPBD described these statistics as an attempt to create a false sense of economic progress, while ground realities show business activities, manufacturing output, and exports under continuous pressure.
The report notes that the reported 9.4 percent growth in the industrial sector is mainly due to accounting adjustments. Similarly, a 25 percent rise in electricity, gas, and water supply sectors stems not from increased production but from a jump in subsidies from 20 billion to 118 billion Pakistani rupees.
Claims of a 21 percent increase in the construction sector are also questionable, given that cement production rose by only 15 percent during the same period. The report further points to a sharp increase in imports related to transport, especially an unusual surge in bus and truck imports.
Food exports fell sharply by 25.8 percent in the first quarter, while food imports rose by 18.8 percent. Despite this, growth was reported in agriculture and food manufacturing, which raises doubts about the accuracy of these figures. EPBD pointed out that the 2.9 percent growth in agriculture contradicts the impact of floods, stagnation in crop production, and the absence of a wheat harvest during the quarter.
The think tank also drew attention to the large gap between domestic growth claims and trade indicators. Imports rose by 11 percent in the first half of the financial year, while exports dropped by nearly 9 percent, signaling a lack of sustainable, private sector-led economic development.
Additionally, cotton production fell, ginning declined by more than 12 percent, and cotton-based exports dropped by around 10 percent.
Bhupendra Singh Chundawat is a seasoned technology journalist with over 22 years of experience in the media industry. He specializes in covering the global technology landscape, with a deep focus on manufacturing trends and the geopolitical impact on tech companies. Currently serving as the Editor at Udaipur Kiran, his insights are shaped by decades of hands-on reporting and editorial leadership in the fast-evolving WORLD of technology.
