Patna, 14 November (Udaipur Kiran). The Bihar Assembly election results have defied almost all exit polls and created an unexpected political scenario in the state. With 91 wins out of the 101 seats it contested, the BJP has emerged as the single largest party in Bihar—its best performance since 2010, but under completely changed circumstances. This time, the BJP is in a position where it can form the government even without the JD(U).

Of the 11 exit polls published earlier, only one poll by Diary predicted 184–206 seats for the NDA. Now that the NDA tally has crossed 200 seats, this poll is being widely discussed. However, the sharpest focus remains on the BJP, which has delivered a powerful performance, leaving the JD(U) behind by 12 seats.

The JD(U) too has performed strongly, securing 79 seats, but the numbers reveal an intriguing possibility: the BJP could explore forming a government without Nitish Kumar by bringing smaller parties together.

BJP’s Alternative Path to Power

With the majority mark at 122, BJP’s 91 seats combined with:

• LJP-R (Chirag Paswan): 21 seats

• HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi): 5 seats

• RLM (Upendra Kushwaha): 4 seats

This alliance reaches 121 seats—just one short of the majority. The BSP is also projected to win one seat, which would push the tally over the halfway mark.

Even without outside support, parties can reduce the effective majority by absenteeism during the floor test, making majority easier to attain. However, political observers believe BJP may avoid this route given Nitish Kumar’s continuing influence in Bihar politics.

Nitish Kumar Still Holds His Own Options

Nitish Kumar also has the numbers to explore an alternative coalition if he decides to part ways. With:

• JD(U): 79 seats

• RJD: 28 seats

• Congress: 5 seats

• AIMIM (Owaisi): 5 seats

• Others: 9 seats

He could potentially form a separate government. But this path may be ideologically challenging, especially with parties like AIMIM whose political positions differ sharply from Nitish Kumar’s centrist stance.

A Dramatic and Uncertain Political Landscape

The results have created multiple workable combinations for government formation, making Bihar’s political situation highly fluid and significant political developments likely in the coming days.