ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s political landscape remains a battleground of competing forces, with the military, former prime minister Imran Khan, and the current govt under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif locked in a tense struggle.
The interplay of US foreign policy and the Pakistani diaspora’s growing voice adds further complexity to a nation grappling with economic woes, security threats and democratic erosion.
Imran Khan, ousted in April 2022 via a no-confidence vote, continues to challenge the status quo from behind bars. Convicted on corruption and state secret charges, the cricketer-turned-politician retains a fervent base, accusing the military and Sharif’s govt of colluding with the US to orchestrate his downfall.
Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) alleges widespread rigging in the Feb 2024 elections, which saw Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) secure power through a fragile coalition. PTI supporters, galvanised by Khan’s claims, have staged protests, clashing with the security forces and deepening the political divide.
The military, longtime kingmaker in Pakistani politics, appears to have shifted allegiance. Once Khan’s backer in his 2018 rise, the army soured on him after policy disputes and his public criticisms of General Asim Munir, the current army chief.
Analysts suggest the military now props up Sharif’s govt, a dynamic evident in legislative moves like the 2023 Pakistan Army Act amendment, which stifled dissent and empowered the armed forces. This hybrid regime – blending electoral democracy with military influence – has drawn scrutiny for undermining constitutional norms, yet the generals show no sign of relinquishing their grip.
However, Shehbaz Sharif, re-elected in March 2024 as PM, faces a legitimacy crisis. His coalition, including the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and other smaller factions, struggles to address surging militant attacks, crumbling infrastructure, and an economy reliant on IMF bailouts.
Sharif vows to mend ties with Washington but his govt’s dependence on military support raises questions about its autonomy. Khan’s call for an election audit, echoed in a letter to the IMF, threatens to derail these efforts as Pakistan awaits a critical loan installment.
The US role remains contentious. Khan’s unproven claims of a Washington-led conspiracy resonate with a populace wary of foreign interference, a sentiment rooted in decades of strained relations. The Biden administration, while engaging Sharif’s govt, has maintained robust military ties with Pakistan, prioritising counter-terrorism over democratic concerns. This ambivalence has fuelled Khan’s narrative, even as US officials dismiss his allegations.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani diaspora, particularly in the US, has emerged as a vocal force. Pro-democracy activists, many aligned with PTI, have lobbied Congress, securing bipartisan support for resolutions condemning elections irregularities and Khan’s detention. Over 100 lawmakers have urged his release, while some advocate sanctions against military leaders like Munir. This diaspora-driven pressure marks a shift, challenging the traditional US-Pakistan security nexus.
As Pakistan teeters between chaos and stability, the military’s shadow looms large, Khan’s defiance endures, and Sharif’s govt navigates a treacherous path. With the US and Pakistani diaspora adding external weight, the nation’s democratic future hangs in the balance.